A query that needs to be requested now could be, why Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears so uninterested within the Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir? Unlike prior to now when the prime minister was seen campaigning with a killer intuition, main from the entrance, this time his absence from the battleground is shocking. Except for just a few rallies in each the states, the PM is lacking in motion, overseas and seen fraternising with international leaders.
Ever since he turned the prime minister, Modi modified the matrix of electioneering. He turned the BJP into an election machine that turned so huge and environment friendly that it was thought of invincible. Other political events paled as compared. None of the opposition events may match the gladiatorial intuition of the BJP. The BJP beneath Modi was referred to as a celebration that was all the time in election mode. That intuition appeared to be lacking this time. Can it’s stated that the prime minister, after being humiliated electorally within the 2024 normal election when his get together ‘unexpectedly’ misplaced the bulk within the decrease home of Parliament, is in deep despair and discovering it tough to regain his previous vigour?
Haryana is likely one of the North Indian states the place the BJP didn’t do properly within the 2024 elections. It misplaced 5 seats to the Congress. In 2019, it had gained all ten seats with 58.02% votes. The Congress was then lowered to solely 28.42% votes, a niche of virtually 30%. But in 2024, BJP’s vote share dropped to 46.11% and the Congress vote share together with the alliance companion AAP, had 47.61% vote. Today, the Congress is a resurgent pressure within the state and the BJP is in decline. BJP is conscious that regardless of its good efficiency in 2019, BJP couldn’t preserve its momentum within the Assembly elections, held later, inside few months, it did not win a majority. Its vote share shrank to 36.49% with solely 40 seats, whereas to kind the federal government it wanted 46 seats. It needed to take the help of JJP (Jannayak Janta Party). The BJP is nervous that this time when the get together’s vote share within the 2024 election is already down by 12% compared to the 2019 parliamentary elections, an extra drop in vote share is inevitable and if that occurs then the BJP might be in bother within the Assembly elections..
The BJP has realised that there’s sturdy anti-incumbency within the state in opposition to its authorities. In 2014 when it shaped the federal government then it was a brand new entity in Haryana. Before that, the BJP was a fringe participant in state politics. The Congress and Indian National Lok Dal, deriving their legacy from Chaudhary Devi Lal, the previous deputy prime minister, have been the principle gamers. In 2014, due to the Modi phenomenon, the BJP most spectacularly swept the ballot and shaped the federal government. It appointed first-time MLA Manohar Lal Khattar because the chief minister. Khattar as an alternative of consolidating BJP’s social base, frittered it away. In 2019, he managed to kind the federal government however it was identified to all that the BJP was weak. Under Khattar, the get together didn’t do sufficient to win again misplaced voters. Khattar led a lacklustre authorities once more. Today Haryana tops the record amongst states with the most important variety of unemployed youth. According to The Hindustan Times report, “46102 graduates and postgraduates have utilized for the roles of contractual sweepers for the meagre wage of Rs 15000 / month.
Khattar turned a legal responsibility for the get together. No marvel he was modified, with a brand new face on the helm. But it didn’t assist a lot as new CM Nayab Singh Saini is seen as a protege of Khattar. The gamble of fixing the chief minister doesn’t appear to be paying off. Khattar is so unpopular that his face is lacking from BJP posters and marketing campaign supplies.
The farmer’s motion sophisticated issues for the BJP. The Modi authorities handled the farmers in essentially the most atrocious method. It refused to acknowledge their presence, referred to as them names and branded them Khalistan supporters. For greater than a yr farmers needed to sit on dharna in essentially the most excessive circumstances. The Khattar authorities as an alternative of sympathising with the farmers, carefully collaborated with the Modi authorities. Now that the election course of is on, farmers have vowed to show BJP a lesson. BJP candidates and their leaders will not be welcome in villages. There are studies that a number of candidates are being chased away in rural areas. Even the grandson of Bhajan Lal, Bhavya, who’s contesting from Adampur, has not been spared and has needed to face the wrath of the farmers. This is the constituency the place the Bhajan Lal household has gained 11 occasions in a row. Bhavya is contesting on the BJP’s ticket.
The native Jat inhabitants can be indignant about the way in which BJP handled girls wrestlers who had accused BJP chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh of sexually misbehaving with them. These are athletes who’ve gained medals for the nation in worldwide occasions. The BJP brazenly sided with Brij Bhushan. Instead of taking motion in opposition to him, the get together selected to malign and character-assassinate the women. International athletes like Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia lastly selected to affix the Congress. Vinesh is contesting elections. Opinion polls and different studies are hinting that the BJP authorities is already on its method out. Only the end result needs to be formally introduced.
The Congress is within the behavior of dropping a successful election prefer it did in Uttarakhand and Punjab within the latest previous. But in Haryana, the get together seems to be extra organised and ready with a robust native chief like Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Though Dalit chief Shailaja is upset with the get together and the BJP is attempting to lure her. Dalits comprise nearly 20% of the inhabitants. But Shailaja has not given any trace that she is going to depart the get together, and possibly it ought to handle a very good win; solely a miracle can save the BJP within the state.
Similarly, the BJP is on a sticky wicket in Jammu and Kashmir. Despite tall claims of improvement after the removing of Art 370 and 35A, the BJP has not fielded any candidate in 21 seats in Kashmir valley. In distinction, it has determined to again these whom it had referred to as anti-national and separatists. It is extensively speculated within the valley that the BJP has struck a take care of the banned organisation Jamat-e-Islami. Jamat for the primary time since 1987 is supporting just a few unbiased candidates. It can be being stated that Engineer Rashid, allegedly a separatist chief, who has been free of jail to marketing campaign for his candidates, is enjoying the BJP’s recreation. The Jammu space the place the BJP did properly within the 2014 Assembly election and later supported and joined the PDP authorities, is replete with indignant voters. The Congress and National Conference mix appears to have an edge within the election.
It is on this context that questions are being requested if the PM is intentionally avoiding elections and electioneering and having fun with international journeys. Is it as a result of on the heels of the humiliation within the 2024 elections, the prime minister doesn’t wish to face one other humiliation and a public debate that his face is not a assure for successful elections? It is a matter of public report that after being sworn in as PM for the third time, he has been to Italy, Russia, Austria, Poland, Ukraine, Brunei, Singapore and now the USA for Quad and UN conferences. Whereas earlier than the Parliamentary elections, from January to May 2024, he visited solely UAE, Qatar and Bhutan. It’s not that the PM didn’t go on international journeys earlier however he was very specific about elections for which he was all the time seen placing his finest foot ahead. He by no means shirked election duties. Even in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka the place the BJP was predicted to lose, the prime minister campaigned with all his power.
Haryana might be adopted by Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. How lengthy will the PM keep away from campaigning? Without him, the BJP is like another get together. Without his charisma, the BJP is leaderless. If the prime minister doesn’t get out of his current temper, it will likely be catastrophic to the BJP and he can’t afford that personally additionally.
The author is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and creator of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B
