Further welfare cuts anticipated as Rachel Reeves prepares to ship spring assertion – UK politics keep | Spring assertion 2025

Rachel Reeves received’t be elevating taxes throughout the spring assertion in the mean time, even supposing there are many of us on the left who would love taxes to rise as another choice to public spending being reduce. Reeves bought right here into office promising only one budget-type event a yr, and that’s one trigger why she shouldn’t be mountaineering taxes in the mean time. But primarily it’s because of she thinks Britons are comparatively extraordinarily taxed already, because of Labour was elected on a manifesto ruling out lots of the obvious attainable tax rises and since she’s not happy a sweeping wealth tax would work.

But that has not stopped campaigners calling for a wealth tax, and yesterday about 300 of us attended a ‘Tax the Super-Rich’ rally outside the Treasury. It was organised by charities and social justice advertising marketing campaign groups, nevertheless one among many audio system was Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green celebration, which is in favour of a wealth tax.

Caitlin Boswell, head of advocacy at Tax Justice UK, one among many groups involved, acknowledged:

Across the nation, inequality is hovering and individuals are being left behind, struggling to make ends meet and dealing with broken public firms, all whereas the very richest get richer. Choosing to make reduce after reduce to the poorest and most marginalised, whereas leaving the massive helpful useful resource of the extraordinary wealth of the super rich untouched, is immoral, harmful, and received’t ship for our communities or the monetary system.

Here is an in a single day Guardian article by Phillip Inman and Aletha Adu on what to anticipate from in the mean time’s spring assertion.

And proper right here is an article by Richard Partington with 5 graphics illustrating the figures that specify the alternate options Rachel Reeves is making.

The British Medical Journal, a primary medical publication, has printed an article by 4 public properly being specialists saying the sickness and incapacity revenue cuts launched closing week – the one largest reduce in in the mean time’s spring assertion bundle – would possibly end in deaths.

The article says:

A key proposal throughout the inexperienced paper is to tighten entry to Pip [personal independence payment] – a revenue overlaying the extra costs of incapacity or long term properly being circumstances – by elevating the eligibility threshold. The Fraser of Allander Institute, an neutral monetary evaluation centre, estimates that saving £1bn a yr would possibly indicate about 250 000 fewer of us receiving Pip. Existing proof suggests that’s unlikely to increase employment expenses. Previous governments have sought to restrict eligibility to, and ranges of, these benefits. Most notably, merely over 1,000,000 current recipients had their eligibility re-assessed between 2010 and 2013, with benefits eradicated if the assessor thought they’d been match for work. This led to an increase in 290 000 of us with psychological properly being points, elevated antidepressant prescribing, and an estimated 600 suicides.

One of the group, Prof Gerry McCartney – a specialist in wellbeing monetary system on the University of Glasgow, acknowledged:

There is now substantial proof that cuts to social security since 2010 have mainly harmed the properly being of the UK inhabitants.

Implementing however additional cuts will on account of this truth finish in additional premature deaths. It is vital that the UK Government understands this proof and takes a definite protection technique.

Keir Starmer (or any person on his crew, to be additional actual) has posted this message regarding the spring assertion on social media this morning.

In an interval of worldwide change, we’re going to ship security for working of us and renewal for Britain.

Cabinet ministers normally deal with a smile for the cameras as soon as they arrive in Downing Street for cabinet. But in the mean time, judging by the pictures, they’d been wanting additional downbeat than regular. They had been arriving to hearken to Rachel Reeves transient them on the spring assertion, along with the shock additional revenue cuts revealed in a single day. (See 8.33am.)

Here are plenty of the arrival footage.

We may be opening suggestions on the weblog at about 10am. And they will preserve open until about 3pm. They are closing ahead of regular because of our moderator cowl is a bit restricted this week.

Ever since Donald Trump turned US president, Keir Starmer and all his ministers have tried as lots as attainable to steer clear of saying what they offer thought to the entire points being acknowledged and completed by his administration (plenty of which are abhorrent to mainstream UK political opinion). Sometimes Starmer and his crew have adopted the highway that it’s not their job to be “commentators”. (Lynton Crosby used to aim the same argument with the Tories.) This has led to many interviews taking a surreal flip, like Angela Rayner’s on the World at One yesterday, the place she refused repeated makes an try to provide any vital response to JD Vance, the US vice-president, and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, denouncing the Europeans as pathetic freeloaders.

But this morning John Healey, the defence secretary, was a bit additional forthcoming. In an interview with Times Radio, requested regarding the Vance/Hegseth argument, he acknowledged:

I regard it additional of an issue.

Asked as soon as extra regarding the Europeans being described as pathetic freeloaders, he acknowledged:

The Americans have gotten a case, the Americans have fully purchased a case, that on defence spending, on European security, on our assist for Ukraine, European nations can and might do additional and the UK is predominant the best way wherein.

I’m pleased with that on defence spending, on European security and on Ukraine. It’s why we’re pulling collectively the coalition.

And in an interview on the Today programme, requested about Trump’s explicit envoy Steve Witkoff describing Keir Starmer’s Ukraine protection as posturing, Healey did push once more in direction of Witkoff’s argument, with out criticising him personally. He acknowledged:

I’m proud that the UK, alongside France, is predominant the coalition of the ready, ready to face by Ukraine throughout the event of a negotiated peace merely as we now have by the battle.

And we’re responding to the US downside to European nations identical to the UK to do additional to assist Ukraine.

We’re responding to the requirement of Ukraine to say, ‘look, post-ceasefire, what are the security arrangements that give us the confidence that any negotiated peace will, as President Trump has said, be a durable peace’.

John Healey, the defence secretary, has been doing an interview spherical this morning because of in a single day the Treasury briefed journalists that Rachel Reeves will announce a further £2.2bn in defence spending from April throughout the spring assertion. (Presumably that was the story the Treasury press office had been hoping could possibly be predominant the data bulletins this morning, not the model new revenue cuts).

In its data launch, the Treasury acknowledged:

The chancellor will announce a further £2.2bn funding improve for defence from April, as she warns that Britain has to “move quickly in a changing world”.

The funding may be invested in superior utilized sciences so that Britain’s armed forces have the devices they need to compete and win in modern warfare. This consists of guaranteeing the funding to go well with Royal Navy ships with Directed Energy Weapons by 2027. These weapons can hit a £1 coin from 1km away and take down drones at a distance of 5km.

It will even be used to supply greater homes for navy households by refurbishing the defence property – along with over 36,000 homes simply currently launched once more into public possession from the rental sector. In addition to this, the funding will unlock speedy preparatory work, equal to website surveys, planning and construction, for the primary redevelopment of armed forces housing by the defence housing approach.

The funding will even help fund upgrades to infrastructure at His Majesty’s Naval Base Portsmouth, securing its capability to assist Royal Navy operations into the long term.

Defence spending in 2024/25 was spherical £57bn.

According to the Treasury, in her spring assertion speech later Reeves will say:

In February, the prime minister set out the federal authorities’s dedication to increase spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027 and an ambition to spend 3% of GDP on defence throughout the subsequent parliament as monetary and financial circumstances allow.

That was the right willpower in a additional insecure world, inserting a further £6.4bn into the defence funds by 2027.

But we now need to maneuver shortly in a altering phrase. And that begins with funding.

So I can in the mean time affirm that I’ll current an extra £2.2bn for the Ministry of Defence subsequent yr – a further downpayment on our plans to ship 2.5% of GDP.

This improve in funding will not be solely about rising our nationwide security nevertheless rising our monetary security, too.

As defence spending rises, I would love the complete nation to essentially really feel the benefits.

UK inflation has fallen once more by better than forecast to 2.8%, providing some constructive data for Rachel Reeves sooner than she makes her spring assertion, Richard Partington tales.

Good morning. This time closing week Stephen Timms, a welfare minister, was doing an interview spherical to defend the £5bn incapacity revenue cuts launched the day gone by, and he refused to rule out extra revenue cuts eventually. Most of us thought he was being cautious as a result of hazard of extra cuts in a while this parliament, or presumably later this yr. I don’t assume anyone anticipated additional cuts to be launched inside days.

But that’s exactly what has occurred. As Heather Stewart, Kiran Stacey and Richard Partington report throughout the Guardian splash, solely hours sooner than the spring assertion, the Treasury has revealed that the incapacity revenue cuts are going to be even deeper than these set out closing week. That is because of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the federal authorities’s all-powerful fiscal regulator, has dominated that the Treasury was being unrealistic when it acknowledged the revenue cuts would save £5bn. (The OBR may be correct – beforehand revenue “crackdowns” haven’t typically saved as lots the Treasury forecasts.). And this means the cuts should be beefed up, to save lots of a lot of one different £1.6bn.

The change was first reported by the Times, which says that “universal credit incapacity benefits for new claimants will now be frozen until 2030 rather than increased in line with inflation” and that there’ll even be “a small reduction in the basic rate of universal credit in 2029”.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves had been already coping with a robust backlash from Labour backbenchers over the revenue cuts. This enchancment is extra prone to exacerbate that, although pretty how seen that may be in the mean time is troublesome to predict. Many Labour MPs are alarmed regarding the cuts in private, nevertheless haven’t spoke out publicly.

John Healey, the defence secretary, has been giving interviews this morning, and he has defended what the Treasury is doing. Referring to the analysis that closing week’s revenue cuts will solely save £3.4bn, not £5bn, he instructed Times Radio:

I consider that’s a calculation that we would even see confirmed from the Office of Budget Responsibility about the long term monetary financial savings that our plans to change the welfare system would possibly convey, and that’s a must-do for any accountable authorities, considerably one which believes throughout the significance of our social security system. Doing nothing shouldn’t be an chance. It’s failing and writing off a youthful expertise.

Today we may be focusing almost solely on the spring assertion. Graeme Wearden, who writes the Guardian’s enterprise weblog, may be turning into a member of me proper right here later, and we may be overlaying the assertion intimately, and bringing you all the easiest analysis and response.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.

12.30pm: Rachel Reeves delivers the spring assertion.

2.30pm: Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, holds a press conference.

4.15pm: Reeves holds a press conference.

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